Ten years following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Both composes two pieces that seek impartiality in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Dialogue indicates an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters report they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to gain from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
